Skip to main content

54 posts tagged with "prediction markets"

Prediction markets and forecasting platforms

View all tags

Hyperliquid HIP-4 Is Live: How Prediction Markets Just Got a Perp Exchange Backbone
·Dora Noda·9 min

Hyperliquid HIP-4 Is Live: How Prediction Markets Just Got a Perp Exchange Backbone

Hyperliquid's HIP-4 brings native binary outcome contracts to the world's largest decentralized perp exchange — unified margin, zero open fees, and a CLOB processing 200,000 orders per second. Here is what it means for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the $29B/month prediction market sector.

Hyperliquid
prediction markets
DeFi
trading
+1
Polymarket's Infrastructure Revolution: How CLOB v2 and pUSD Are Rebuilding the Prediction Market Stack
·Dora Noda·8 min

Polymarket's Infrastructure Revolution: How CLOB v2 and pUSD Are Rebuilding the Prediction Market Stack

Polymarket's April 28, 2026 CLOB v2 launch and pUSD migration replace ghost-fill-prone V1 architecture and Wormhole-bridged collateral with a rebuilt matching engine and a native Polygon stablecoin — a decisive infrastructure bet made under competitive pressure from Hyperliquid HIP-4's zero-fee structure and Kalshi's CFTC-licensed moat.

prediction markets
Hyperliquid
Polygon
infrastructure
+1
SEC Pauses the First Prediction-Market ETFs: How Roundhill's BLUP/REDP Delay Reshapes Election Betting
·Dora Noda·13 min

SEC Pauses the First Prediction-Market ETFs: How Roundhill's BLUP/REDP Delay Reshapes Election Betting

The SEC halted Roundhill's six election-bet ETFs — BLUP, REDP, BLUS, REDS, BLUH, REDH — twenty-four hours before their May 5 launch. Inside the swap structure, Kalshi's $22B advantage, and Hyperliquid HIP-4's zero-fee threat reshaping the prediction-market sector.

prediction markets
ETF
regulation
Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid HIP-4 Day One: How a Single BTC Pair Outran Polymarket in Six Hours
·Dora Noda·9 min

Hyperliquid HIP-4 Day One: How a Single BTC Pair Outran Polymarket in Six Hours

Hyperliquid's HIP-4 outcome markets went live on May 2, 2026 and overtook Polymarket on a single BTC pair within six hours — here is what zero-fee opens, USDH collateral, and unified margin actually unlocked.

Hyperliquid
prediction markets
DeFi
DEX
+1
96 Hours That Reshaped Prediction Markets: Senate's Unanimous Ban and the End of Libertarian Framing
·Dora Noda·12 min

96 Hours That Reshaped Prediction Markets: Senate's Unanimous Ban and the End of Libertarian Framing

On April 30, 2026, the U.S. Senate unanimously banned itself from trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. The 96-hour timeline that pulled prediction markets from libertarian thought experiment to regulated derivatives industry.

prediction markets
regulation
policy
compliance
+1
A $50 Bet, a 5-Year Ban: Inside Kalshi's First Big Test of Prediction-Market Self-Regulation
·Dora Noda·14 min

A $50 Bet, a 5-Year Ban: Inside Kalshi's First Big Test of Prediction-Market Self-Regulation

Kalshi suspended three congressional candidates for betting on their own races, levying $7,553 in fines. Why this small enforcement action signals a $22B prediction-market industry writing its own rules ahead of Congress.

prediction markets
regulation
compliance
policy
MegaETH's MEGA TGE: When KPIs, Not Calendars, Unlock 5.33 Billion Tokens
·Dora Noda·10 min

MegaETH's MEGA TGE: When KPIs, Not Calendars, Unlock 5.33 Billion Tokens

MegaETH's April 30 token launch ties 53.3% of MEGA's 10 billion supply to verified network KPIs instead of calendar cliffs, with Polymarket pricing the launch at 97% YES and Coinbase pre-listing live.

MegaETH
layer-2
tokenomics
Coinbase
+1
Kaito's Pivot: When the Attention Economy Ran Into Platform Risk
·Dora Noda·11 min

Kaito's Pivot: When the Attention Economy Ran Into Platform Risk

Kaito sunset Yaps after X revoked API access for incentivized posting. Inside the four-product pivot, the Polymarket attention-markets bet, and what InfoFi looks like when platforms own the data.

social-media
creator economy
prediction markets
crypto
+1
The Paradox at the Heart of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket Are Banning the Traders Who Make Them Work
·Dora Noda·11 min

The Paradox at the Heart of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket Are Banning the Traders Who Make Them Work

Kalshi and Polymarket just banned politicians, athletes, and employees from trading on their own outcomes — exactly the traders Robin Hanson says prediction markets need to function. Inside the April 2026 microstructure debate that will reshape event contracts for a decade.

prediction markets
event contracts
regulation
policy
+1
Showing 1–9 of 54 posts
Prev1 / 6Next