The Paradox at the Heart of Prediction Markets: Kalshi and Polymarket Are Banning the Traders Who Make Them Work
Kalshi and Polymarket just banned politicians, athletes, and employees from trading on their own outcomes — exactly the traders Robin Hanson says prediction markets need to function. Inside the April 2026 microstructure debate that will reshape event contracts for a decade.
Kairos and the Bloomberg Terminal Moment for Prediction Markets
Kairos raised $2.5M from a16z crypto to build a unified trading terminal for Polymarket and Kalshi — a bet that prediction markets have finally crossed the threshold where institutional tooling follows institutional flow.
Polymarket vs the Polls: Why Prediction Markets Are Crushing Pollsters — and What That Means for Democracy
Prediction markets outperformed traditional polls across 14 major elections in 2025-2026, with Polymarket and Kalshi generating over $40 billion in volume. Here's how financialized forecasting works, why regulators are split, and what it means for democracy.
The CFTC Just Sued Three States Over Prediction Markets — Here's Why It Could Reshape a $44 Billion Industry
The CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. With Kalshi valued at $22B, Polymarket back in the US, and DraftKings entering the space, the federal-state battle will decide the fate of a $44B industry — and whether on-chain prediction platforms can operate under one national framework.
What are Prediction Markets? Mechanisms, Impact, and Opportunities
Delve into the evolving landscape of prediction markets, exploring their mechanisms, impact on information aggregation, and potential for innovation in SaaS and tech. Understand the regulatory environment and the opportunities for builders in this dynamic field.